Demographic Profile of India

Demography is the statistical study of human populations, focusing on variables like size, growth, distribution, density, and composition, along with their variations over time and space. It also examines the relationships between these variables and factors like economic, social, and cultural conditions. Demographics provide quantifiable statistics about these population variables.

Learning Outcomes

1. Understand the key concepts of demography and its impact on society.
2. Comprehend the Theory of Demographic Transition and its stages.
3. Analyze the trends in India’s population growth and age composition.
4. Identify India’s birth rate, death rate, and density insights.
5. Examine India’s Rural-Urban Population dynamics based on Census 2011.

Theory of Demographic Transition

The Demographic Transition Theory, introduced by Frank W. Notestein in 1945, describes the changing pattern of mortality, fertility, and population growth as societies progress through various stages due to industrialization and economic development. According to this theory, countries pass through four stages:

1. First Stage (High Birth Rate and High Death Rate): Both birth and death rates are high, resulting in slow and fluctuating population growth.
2. Second Stage (Early Expanding): High birth rate continues, but the death rate falls, leading to a rapid rise in population.
3. Third Stage (Late Expanding): Birth rate starts declining while the death rate remains low, causing a decline in population growth.
4. Fourth Stage (Low Fluctuating): Both birth and death rates are low, leading to a stationary or declining population, as seen in many Western European countries.

Important Note: The Optimum Theory of Population posits that there is an ideal population size in every country that maximizes per capita income. Exceeding this level results in overpopulation.

Population Theory of Malthus

Thomas Robert Malthus was the first to propose a systematic population theory. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, he argued that while food production grows arithmetically, human populations grow exponentially, leading to potential shortages of resources. He advocated for preventive checks (like delayed marriage) and positive checks (famine, disease) but opposed birth control. Modern economists criticize this theory, pointing to technological advancements and increased productivity.

India’s Population Growth

Post-independence India has seen a rapid population increase, characterized by specific periods:

1. Period of Stable Population (1891-1921): Growth was slow due to high mortality rates caused by calamities and epidemics (e.g., the 1918 epidemic claimed 14 million lives).
2. Period of Growth (1921-1951): Marked by a consistent rise in population. The year 1921 is referred to as the Year of the Great Divide for its shift in demographic trends.
3. Period of Population Explosion (1951-1981):

• 1951-1961: Growth rate peaked at 21.6%.
• 1961-1971: Population increased by 109 million.
• 1971-1981: Added 135.1 million people.

1. High Growth with Signs of Slowing (1981-Present):

• 1981-1991: Population reached 846 million, an addition of 160 million.
• 1991-2001: Increase of 180.7 million, total population 1.029 billion.
• 2001-2011: Growth slowed to 17.64%, marking the slowest rate in the century.

Birth and Death Rates in India

• Birth Rate: Refers to the number of children born per 1,000 individuals annually. India’s birth rate remains high compared to developed nations.
• Death Rate: Measures deaths per 1,000 individuals. India’s rate aligns more closely with other countries.

Density of Population

• Density: Refers to the average number of people living per square kilometer. As per the 2011 Census, India’s population density was 382 per sq km.
• Real Population Density: Calculated per square kilometer of arable land, indicating a country’s potential to feed its citizens. India has a lower physiological density compared to other nations due to its extensive arable land.

Census 2011: Key Insights

The 15th National Census surveyed 28 States and 7 Union Territories, covering 640 districts and over 600,000 villages.

Rural-Urban Population

• Urban Population Increase: From 2001 to 2011, urban population growth (91 million) surpassed rural growth (90.47 million).
• Highest Rural Proportion: Himachal Pradesh (89.96%).
• Highest Urban Proportion: Delhi (97.5%).

Important Note: Sex Ratio improved from 933 in 2001 to 940 in 2011. However, the Child Sex Ratio (0-6 years) dropped by 13 points to 914.

Rural vs. Urban Literacy Rates

Area	Total Literacy (%)	Male Literacy (%)	Female Literacy (%)
Rural	68.91	–	–
Urban	84.98	–	–

Demographic Dividend

A Demographic Dividend occurs when a country has a large working-age population (15-64 years) with fewer dependents (below 15 and above 64). This boosts economic growth by:

1. Lowering the dependency ratio, increasing economic productivity.
2. Enhancing domestic savings and investments.

Concept: Effective utilization of the demographic dividend requires supportive national policies that improve literacy, employment, and healthcare.

Life Expectancy and Sex Ratio

Life Expectancy measures the average lifespan in a country. India’s life expectancy has risen from 19.4 years (1921) to 69.89 years (2011), indicating improvements in healthcare and living conditions.

Year	Life Expectancy (Years)
1921	19.4
2011	69.89

• Sex Ratio: Globally, there are 986 females per 1,000 males. In India, the 2011 Census recorded 940 females per 1,000 males.

Literacy Rates

Literacy refers to individuals above the age of 7 who can read and write in any language. The 2011 Census reported an overall literacy rate of 74.04%, with Kerala having the highest rate (93.91%) and Bihar the lowest (63.82%).

National Population Policy (NPP) 2000

The NPP 2000 framework aims to address unmet needs for contraception, healthcare, and infrastructure. Objectives include reducing infant mortality rate and improving maternal health.

Note: Population control policies have expanded in scope since independence, now encompassing broader health and quality-of-life goals.

State-wise Demographic Data (2011)

State/UT	Population	Sex Ratio	Density	Growth Rate	Literacy (%)
Kerala	3,34,06,061	1084	860	4.9	94.0
Uttar Pradesh	19,98,12,341	912	829	20.2	67.7
Maharashtra	11,23,74,333	929	365	16.0	82.3
Delhi	1,67,87,941	868	11,320	21.2	86.2

Important Concept: Physiological density (population per square km of arable land) provides a more realistic measure of population pressure on land resources.

Aadhar and National Population Register (NPR)

Aadhar is a 12-digit unique number issued to Indian residents, incorporating biometric data (photographs, iris scans, fingerprints). The UIDAI manages the Aadhar database, while the NPR compiles a registry of usual residents.

• UIDAI was established in 2009, headed by Nandan Nilekani, to enhance identification and service delivery.

State-wise Sex Ratio in 2001 and 2011 (Selected Data)

State/UT	2011 Population	Sex Ratio (2011)	Density	Growth Rate	Literacy (%)
Bihar	10,40,99

,452 | 918 | 1106 | 25.4 | 61.8 |
| Rajasthan | 6,85,48,437 | 928 | 200 | 21.9 | 66.1 |
| West Bengal | 9,12,76,115 | 950 | 1028 | 13.8 | 76.3 |

Key Insight: States like Kerala demonstrate a high sex ratio and literacy rate, reflecting progress in gender equality and education.

Religion-Based Census (2011)

India’s Census 2011 included religious composition:

1. Hindus: 96.63 crore (79.8%)
2. Muslims: 17.22 crore (14.2%)
3. Christians: 2.78 crore (2.3%)
4. Sikhs: 2.08 crore (1.7%)

Note: The Hindu population dipped below 80% for the first time.

Multiple Choice Question

Which stage in the Demographic Transition Theory represents a high birth rate and a falling death rate?

1. First Stage
2. Second Stage
3. Third Stage
4. Fourth Stage
   Correct Answer: 2. Second Stage